When Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year, experts from various outlets warned that wheat shipments could be cut off, leading to grain shortages. The shortage will be followed by higher prices for pantry staples, from flour to pasta to bread. Together, Russia and Ukraine export more than a quarter of the world’s wheat.

Most wheat is imported by countries with limited production capacity, and according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the largest growth markets for wheat imports are North and Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.

But the prediction of a global wheat shortage didn’t quite pan out. Ukraine produced 20 million tonnes of wheat last year, about 25% below the average level. Monika Tothova, an economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said the decline in wheat exports from Ukraine was balanced by increases in production elsewhere. Total wheat production in 2022 rose globally due to higher exports from countries such as Canada and Russia, where some years had higher-than-average production.

In addition, shipments of wheat made their way from Ukraine. Under the July agreement, the resumption of Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea allowed the shipment of commercial food exports from three Ukrainian ports. The United Nations (UN) estimates that the decision in November of the parties to extend the agreement contributed to a 2.8% drop in global wheat prices. Talks will begin this week on taking the agreement forward.


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How the Ukraine invasion sparked fears of a global wheat shortage
Tothova said that when the war broke out, it was unclear how wheat consignments would reach development markets. So wheat prices skyrocketed, which creates problems for countries dependent on imports. (Indeed, wheat prices had already been rising before the war due to pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and extreme weather.) To date, wheat prices have declined from their highs, but remain high. “You don’t have a shortage at the global level, however, that doesn’t mean there aren’t problems at the country level,” she said.

Many wheat import-dependent countries including Congo, Ethiopia and Sudan are facing the threat of starvation. Some countries also have some economic problems, Tothova said, including experiencing high energy prices (though prices are falling) or spending a lot of resources on the Covid-19 pandemic. At the end of last year, the US dollar strengthened, increasing these countries’ cost of goods denominated in dollars. He said all these factors were affecting how much wheat countries could import.


This year may be a different story. While Ukrainian farmers were able to plant wheat ahead of last year’s harvest, they do not have all their usual resources, she said.

How will wheat production be in the ongoing war?
For one, Ukrainian farmers didn’t have much liquidity, constraining how much farmers spent on inputs such as fertilizer, Tothova said.

With the land still contaminated by mines, and the rough shape of rail lines and roads, production would still be well below average. According to estimates by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, winter wheat plantings in July 2023 were 40 percent below 2022 levels.

Still, wheat producers in Ukraine seem confident they’ll be able to export their product, said Tim Luginsland, Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute sector manager, in an email. “So they’ll plant as many trees as they can.” He added that this could be the year when the US experiences normal rainfall so the US can increase its wheat exports.

Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Global Food Insecurity
War is one of many factors contributing to worsening global food insecurity. For example, East Africa has been experiencing years of drought in addition to political instability. According to FAO estimates, before the start of the war in Ukraine, the number of undernourished people in 2022 was 733.9 million. Tothova said that number rose by about 10 million, based on new baseline estimates in an environment of higher prices. “International prices, on average, are making the situation worse for a number of reasons, including the ripple effect of the war in Ukraine,” she said.

“The world is operating in a very interconnected way,” he said, noting how the war contributed to higher energy prices, which pushed up prices globally, which in turn affected interest rates. But, when it comes to agriculture, the biggest unknown is weather, especially as weather events become more extreme.